Your Ability to Predict the Future Does Not Improve with Experience

Last week, I blurted forth a small series of tweets that, when stitched together, read as follows: “Assumptions we make today about 5 years from now are as wrong as assumptions we made 5 years ago about today. Your ability to predict the future doesn’t improve with experience, unless it teaches you that you can’t predict anything. Therefore, flexibility is a far more valuable skill than forecasting.”

Well, um … that said, Association Trends asked if I would provide a few “predictions” for associations, and they are now online along with several others from smarter folks. You need a subscription to read my full reasoning behind each of my (not-very-earth-shattering) forecasts, but here’s the short version:

• Most “committees” will no longer exist
• “Mobile” will be the primary association communications channel
• What’s “free” and what’s “paid” will look very different
• Niches will grow in importance relative to the mass market
• Geography is no longer that important, and as a result local components will focus on active, valuable and sustainable products and services, or else fade away
• Leadership development models will change by necessity, because few people want to make multi-year commitments
• The line between “member” and “customer” will become even more blurred

(Wow, I use a lot of “quotes.”)

Thanks to Jill and Edd at Trends, and by the way — congrats to this year’s crop of Trends “Young & Aspiring Association Professionals.” Some impressive folks!